The Chelsea Standard
A Heritage Newspaper
Weekly Publication
Conference: We have reached 'Peak Oil'
By Kathy Clark and Cary Church, Special Writers
PUBLISHED: June 19, 2008
Rising fuel prices are driving up a lot of other costs — everything from food to travel.
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Through the media, local families are generally aware of resource practices with water shortages, food shortages and greenhouse gases polluting earth's atmosphere.
In addition, there's the continued issue of oil and natural gas depletion.
People are beginning to realize that generations living in the 21st century will need to learn to cope with change on a large scale.
Our industrial age as we know it may be restructured due to increasingly scarce and more expensive fuel as well as other important resources being at risk.
More than 230 concerned citizens, mainly from Michigan but also from the East and West coasts, attended the "International Conference on Peak Oil and Climate Change Ê Paths to Sustainability," from May 30 to June 1 at Calvin College in Grand Rapids.
Conferees listened to lecturers, watched presentations, and attended classes with a diverse group of authors, community activists, engineers, teachers, scientists, ecologists, homemakers and theologians.
Convention attendees were presented with a wealth of information about local and worldwide systems and ways of life.
Major Michigan cities represented at the conference were Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor.
Many attended from Middleville, the home of conference organizer Aaron Wissner, a Wayland Middle School teacher.
Wall Street Journal writer Neil King Jr. had interviewed Wissner extensively, and his concerns about pressing environmental, economic and social problems were published in a front-page article in The Journal on Jan. 26: "In a World Short of Oil, Provisions Must Be Made."
The conference featured international speakers and authors including Dr. David Goodstein, author of "Out of Gas"; Megan Quinn Bachman; Julian Darley; Richard Heinberg, author of "Power Down" and "Peak Everything"; Stephanie Mills; and Pat Murphy, author of "Plan C."
Presentations included the ethical dimensions of earth's problems as well as scientific solutions for sustainability.
Climate change is fast becoming part of the mainstream vocabulary, and right behind it are the "peak resources" concepts.
"Peak oil" is a newer concept pertaining to the global supply of oil.
Petroleum geologist M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970.
No major U.S. oil resources have been found since 1960, and skeptics became believers when his predictions came true. The oil supply charting is known as "Hubbert's Peak."
In explaining oil and gas data, its dwindling supplies and ramifications on our lives, conference presentations emphasized that the era of cheap oil and gas is over.
Under the "peak oil" theory, oil production will reach its maximum when we have consumed half of the world's total reserves, production levels off, then declines continuously until the cost of extraction becomes prohibitively expensive.
At the plateau, where we may be at present, prices begin to rise significantly and economic stress begins to be felt as demand continues to go up.
When production starts to decline, an economic collapse could ensue unless other substitutes come available quickly to fill in the void or if an alternate economic plan is in place to accommodate the decline.
We may already be at peak, because world production hasn't surpassed the 85.17 million barrel-per-day mark set in July 2006.
Conference speakers stressed that if oil and gas prices climb higher we need to start planning for natural gas shortages, inflation due to the shrinking dollar, depleting food systems which rely on fertilizers and pesticides produced from natural gas and oil, and depleting water systems.
"Can we just run our cars on corn?" one speaker asked. Many believe that automotive engineers and scientists will reinvent our gasoline-dependent fleet of cars.
Statistics nationwide show travelers are increasing their use of mass transportation in an effort to save money.
Speakers stressed that a whole new energy and transportation system will not come quickly.
Joining with peak oil will soon be peak uranium, peak natural gas and peak coal. Coal is a huge pollutant, but its supply will last somewhat longer.
Energy systems are being developed from the wind and sun. Another source under development are lithium-ion batteries, currently being used to replace kerosene lights in South America. The same technology may be used in future automobiles.
Conference speaker and environmental attorney Sara Gosman talked about great strides in usage of the connecting Great Lakes water basins.
The Great Lakes Water Compact — officially titled "The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact" — is in the process of being ratified by governors and provincial leaders in eight states and Canada to use the same laws uniformly to govern how water is withdrawn from the lakes.
Growing food locally was a hot topic for a post-peak oil solution.
There were vegetarians at the conference who suggested we significantly reduce the consumption of red meat and eat lower off the food chain.
"Cows cause more global warming than cars," according to Dawn Moncrief, executive director of the Farm Animal Rights Movement.
Some areas of innovation are occurring in the numerous "eco-villages," "eco-cities" and "transition towns" that successfully exist all over the world.
In light of these new world stresses on resources, communities such as Chelsea may be able to rethink the problems that hit closest to home:
Why are we driving so much? Can we come up with ways to quit using so much gas? Can we perhaps build our fleet of electric cars and trucks quickly? Can we develop answers before our pocketbooks are empty?
We are gathering local interest in the peak oil theory. Ultimately we would like to help Chelsea-area people prepare for a short-term or long-term emergency of some kind.
Anyone interested in learning about upcoming conferences or attending local meetings on resource conservation may contact Cary Church at cshurch@comcast.net or Kathy Clark at clarkblotter@provide.net, or at P.O. Box 117, Chelsea MI 48118.
Further information on peak oil and the other concepts discussed is available on the Internet by searching "peak oil" or localfuture.org.
Kathy Clark is a freelance writer from Chelsea; Cary Church is an automotive engineer with the Chrysler Proving Grounds in Chelsea.
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